Ground Signal Founder & CEO Melki Ko presented "How Operators are Turning AI Data into Revenue" at the 2026 Vibe Conference. Ko explored the answer to the question: What if you could tap into what guests are already talking about—before they ever walk through your doors?
Melki broke down how suppliers and retailers are using AI to decode consumer behavior, spot emerging trends, and turn social buzz into bottom-line results—from understanding which occasions drive the most volume to identifying the next breakout cocktail before it hits your competitor's menu.
The Three Data Sets Every Operator Needs
When it comes to data, Ko believes to truly understand what’s happening in your venue and your market, you need three categories of data working together.
Consumer Data (Social)
Social media is the most important and most underutilized data source in the industry. Over 100 million public Instagram profiles are constantly posting about their on-premise experiences — what they’re drinking, when, with whom, and for what occasion. This is real-time, unprompted consumer behavior at a scale no survey can replicate. When people tag your restaurant in a post, they’re telling you something. Ground Signal listens at scale.
Depletion Data (Sales)
Social signals alone aren’t enough — you need to validate them with actual sales. Ground Signal aggregates depletion data from participating suppliers across 250,000+ accounts, covering roughly 70% of spirits sold in the U.S. This allows them to close the loop: when social mentions of a cocktail or occasion spike, does the sales data confirm it? Consistently, the answer is yes.
Menu Data
Menus are the bridge between consumer demand and operator execution. Ground Signal tracks 120,000+ on-premise menus nationally — 90K independent, 30K chain, 40k spirits menus — updated monthly. The data shows not just what’s on menus, but what’s growing, what’s shrinking, what’s priced at what tier, and how those trends vary by market, occasion type, and trade channel.
“Accounts that post their menus online sell 63% more than accounts that don’t," said Ko.
What the Data Is Showing Right Now: National On-Premise Trends
Ko shared insights from Ground Signal’s current national data. Here are the most operator-relevant findings.
Occasions
The highest-performing accounts aren’t just bars and restaurants — they’re venues that have built a reason for guests to come in, celebrate, and post about it. Here's the data on alcohol sales during occasion-driven events:
- Happy Hour: Accounts with active Happy Hour programming sell 75% more spirits than the national average.
- Ladies' Night: Where Ladies Night is mentioned, accounts sell 134% more spirits versus
the national benchmark. - Sports-Focused: Sell 55% more spirits.
- Birthdays: These events drive 49% more spirits sales. They are also viewed as the most popular occasion mentioned in the on-premise.
The message: Events and programming are not just marketing. They are measurably tied to revenue.
Cocktails: Classics Are Winning, With Key Challengers
The Margarita remains the dominant cocktail nationally, accounting for 12.7% of all cocktails on menu, up +5% year-over-year. But the Espresso Martini is the most interesting story: It now holds 2.1% of menu share and has grown +31% in the past year.
On social, Dirty Martini mentions have grown +51% over three years, Lemon Drop +60%, and Lychee Martini +39%. The Old Fashioned is up +10%. Mojito is down -19%. The consumer is moving toward assertive, sophisticated serves.
Flavors: Espresso Leads, Vanilla Is Surging
Espresso is now the #1 flavor mentioned on social in on-premise accounts — by a wide margin at 19% of mentions — and is growing +31% over three years. Vanilla is the fastest-growing flavor at +33%. Lychee is up +30%. Citrus and tropical flavors are growing at +17% each.
On menus, orange leads at 12.4% cocktail share, but vanilla is the only top-10 menu flavor in positive growth territory at +19% year-over-year. Coconut is collapsing (-17%).
Spirits Categories: Everyone Is Down, But Not Equally
The headline for spirits sales is sobering: all major categories declined in the 12 months ending October 2025. Tequila was down 4%, American Whiskey -7%, Vodka -7%, Rum -11%, Gin -8%, Scotch -15%.
But the more important story is in the price tier breakdown. Value-priced spirits (under $10/750mL) fell 22%. Standard tier fell 8%. Premium ($20–$29.99) and Super Premium ($30–$44.99) declined only 5% each. In tequila specifically, the Premium tier actually grew +2% — the only bright spot in the category.
Ko’s read: premiumization isn’t dead. It’s decelerating from the extremes (ultra-premium and prestige down 10%) while the sweet spot of $20–$30 tequila is holding and even growing. The consumer isn’t trading down to value — they’re trading out of value to better products at accessible premium price points.
Five Takeaways for On-Premise Operators
- Social-driven occasions generate the highest sales velocity. Happy Hour, Brunch, Ladies Night, Trivia Night, and high-energy programming all dramatically outperform the national average. Building programs around occasions isn’t just experiential — it’s a direct revenue lever.
- Traditional cocktails are winning on menu, with specific challengers surging. Margarita, Old Fashioned, Martini, and Espresso Martini are all growing. Build around them. Mojito and Bloody Mary are declining.
- Premium still outperforms value — significantly. Across every spirits category, the highest decline is in value-priced products. Premium tequila is the only tier growing. Don’t reflexively trade down your pour selection; the guest who orders a cocktail at your bar is often willing to pay for quality.
- The data on your own guests is more accessible than you think. Social media posts, Instagram follower lists, menu data, and AI tools are all available now, most of them free or low-cost. You don’t need an enterprise platform to start developing data-informed strategy.
- The most important question isn’t what’s trending nationally. It’s what’s trending at accounts like yours, in your market, with guests like yours. Get specific with your AI queries and you’ll get specific answers.
Contact us now to secure your program for the 2027 Vibe Conference:
Elliot Howell, Sales Director, ehowell@questex.com
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