Baseball, apple pie, PB&J, Fourth of July fireworks, Bruce Springsteen—America’s pastimes are rich and varied. But when it comes to exports, it’s hard to argue with a good old bottle of whiskey taking the top spot.
Whiskey is a category so nuanced and diverse that I could easily write multiple columns on its many subcategories. Looking only at total whiskey would oversimplify things. To truly understand the dynamics at play, we need to examine not just bourbon but Scotch, Irish, Japanese, and other styles too.
A Global Powerhouse
It’s in emerging and developing on-premise markets where we are really seeing whiskey, particularly high-end malts and bourbon, really drive growth. In China, which has the second-highest rate of on-premise visitation globally, whiskey is the top-claimed category, with 42% of consumers saying they would choose it if available. Similarly, India’s growing middle class is fueling one of the fastest-expanding On Premise environments in the world—and once again, whiskey is leading the charge.
Problems on Home Soil
Whiskey accounts for three of the top five on-premise spirits brands, so it’s no surprise that the broader challenges facing the beverage alcohol industry are hitting this category hard.
Cost-of-living pressures, a decline in face-to-face socializing, and increased moderation—particularly among younger consumers—have all contributed to wider category declines. Total spirits volumes are down 5.2%, with whiskey falling even further at 7.3%. The primary driver? A sharp 11% drop in rate of sale.
Look Below the Headlines
Breaking whiskey down by sub-category, the size ranking is as follows:
- American
- Canadian
- Irish
- Scotch
- Japanese
While all categories are experiencing declines, the extent varies. American and Scotch whiskies are seeing relatively modest value declines at -2.5% and -1.6% respectively. In contrast, Canadian and Irish whiskies are facing steeper drops, down -9.6% and -6.7%.
Even within Scotch, performance is mixed. Blended Scotch is relatively stable, down just -0.8%, while malts are under greater pressure, with a decline of -4.6%. Potential contributors include tightening consumer spending and the lingering impact of tariffs.
When interrogating American whiskey, ‘straight bourbon’ outperforms all other whiskey categories with a flat year-on-year US$ value trend. Brands such as Angel's Envy, Makers Mark, and Bulleit would fall under this bucket.
Opportunities Within Cocktails?
As with many spirits categories, cocktails and mixed drinks offer a promising path forward, particularly for attracting consumers who may not typically engage with whiskey. One of whiskey’s greatest strengths is its versatility. Whether served neat, on the rocks, or mixed, it adapts effortlessly across drinking occasions. Brands should actively engage both bartenders and consumers to showcase whiskey’s full range of serve options.
Cocktails, in particular, present significant growth potential. According to CGA’s latest Cocktail Report, the top seven best-selling whiskey-based cocktails are:
- Old Fashioned
- Whiskey Sour
- Manhattan
- Julep
- Boulevardier
- Paper Plane
- Penicillin
To Finish
Despite current challenges in mature markets, whiskey remains one of the most dynamic and resilient spirits categories globally. Its performance in fast-growing on-premise markets highlights both its enduring appeal and future potential.
While economic pressures, consumer moderation, and shifting social habits have impacted sales, especially in North America, there are clear areas of opportunity. Straight Bourbon shows stability, and whiskey’s natural versatility makes it well-suited to capitalize on the rising popularity of cocktails.
For brands willing to adapt and innovate, whether through bartender engagement, diverse serve strategies, or a renewed focus on education, experience or flavors, whiskey’s next chapter still remains very much part of the American Dream.
With over 15 years of experience in On Premise consumer intelligence, Matthew Crompton, NIQ Vice President BevAl, has managed and provided consultancy for some of the largest Beverage Manufacturers across Europe and the Americas. Operating at the intersection of consumer behavior, commercial performance, and market dynamics, Matt is a trusted advisor to leaders in global drinks brands and hospitality operators navigating the evolving beverage landscape. His insights are regularly featured in industry publications, and he plays a critical role in shaping strategic decisions. Originally from the North of England, Matt has embraced American life at every opportunity since relocating to Chicago in 2015.
Data sources: CGA by NIQ REACH 2025, On Premise Measurement 52 weeks rolling MAT to 5/17/25, Cocktail Report 2024
CGA by NIQ provides definitive On Premise consumer intelligence that reveals new pathways to growth for the world’s most successful food and drink brands. With more than 30 years of best-in-class research, data, and analytics, CGA by NIQ provides the Full View(TM).
CGA by NIQ works with food and beverage suppliers, consumer brand owners, wholesalers, government entities, pubs, bars, and restaurants to protect and shape the future of the On Premise experience. Using the most complete and clear understanding of measurement and insights, CGA by NIQ provides a competitive edge to guide winning strategies for On Premise businesses.
NIQ was founded in 1923 and is an Advent International portfolio company. For more information, visit NIQ.com or www.cgastrategy.com.
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