A new analysis by the culinary school Escoffier explored wage growth, job demand, and opportunities across hospitality positions. The analysis examined the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics data and industry research to provide a comprehensive look at the salary outlook for seven key culinary and hospitality positions through 2034.
Here’s an at-a-glance table of current and projected salary and job growth for those seven culinary and hospitality positions over the next decade.
Let's take a deeper look into some of the most popular positions in the on-premise restaurant industry.
Chefs and Head Cooks
- 2024 Median Salary: $60.9K
- 2019-2024 Salary CAGR: 3.43%
- Estimated 2034 Median Salary: $85.4K
- Projected Job Growth (2024-2034): 7%
Job growth for chefs is expected to be significantly faster than average over the next 10 years. This growth, combined with approximately 24,000 annual openings created by retirements and career transitions, translates into many work opportunities. Salary will also continue to improve, with median pay projected to rise from $61K up to $85K by 2034.
Of course region and venue type play a major role in salary, with chefs in top markets and at premium establishments expected to earn substantially more—even reaching well into six figures.
According to Escoffier, restaurants are looking for chefs who bring innovation to the table as well as specialized skill sets. Whether it’s mastering regional ethnic cuisines, developing sustainable sourcing relationships, or creating cutting-edge vegetable-forward dishes, specialization provides a competitive edge.
Bartenders
- 2024 Median Salary: $33,530
- 2019-2024 Salary CAGR: 7.20%
- Estimated 2034 Median Salary: $67,226
- Projected Job Growth (2024-2034): 6%
While projected job growth for bartenders hovers around 6%, it's massive turnover that's creating more than 130,000 annual openings.
Median base pay sits around $33.5K annually, and it is projected to rise to more than $67K by 2034. As with other on-premise professions, region and venue type play a role, and skilled bartenders in high-volume or upscale venues or in major metropolitan areas can earn significantly more. Tips can also inflate the salary figure in busy establishments.
The rise of "startenders" or bartender influencers can also play a role in salary as bartending has evolved from a service job to a skilled craft. Talented mixologists in major markets command premium compensation, and they can advance from behind the bar into bar management, consulting, or even bar ownership.
Restaurant Cooks
- 2024 Median Salary: $37,730
- 2019-2024 Salary CAGR: 6.31%
- Estimated 2034 Median Salary: $69,548
- Projected Job Growth (2024-2034): 15%
The future is bright for this category, which encompasses line and prep cooks, as it is one of the largest and fastest-growing occupations with 15% projected job growth over the next 10 years. This category is also expected to add over 200,000 jobs by 2034. The salary is expected to nearly double to $70K by 2034.
A shortage has plagued this labor category, and many restaurants are now offering signing bonuses, higher starting wages, more reasonable hours, and better working conditions to attract cooks.
You can read the full report here.
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