At the 2026 Bar & Restaurant Expo, Kevin Denton Rex, director of The Spirits Authority, a new research and education firm launched in 2025 with Co-Founder Andy Seymour, led a session titled “The Truth About What Independent Bars Really Serve.”
The Spirits Authority is a sibling company to Liquid Productions, and the team's credentials span founding memberships in BAR 5-Day, Diageo World Class, and BarSmarts, multiple Bar Mentor of the Year awards, and more.
The talk at the Bar & Restaurant Expo dove into the 2025 Spirits Authority Annual Report, which draws on surveys of 98 independent bars across 14 states — with 24 spots dedicated to New York City alone — analyzing 1,444 cocktail entries and tracking 93 data variables per operator. Chains and franchises were excluded. The methodology is deliberately old-fashioned: every menu reviewed, every operator called.
From the data The Spirits Authority gleaned, they shared five forces shaping bars in 2026.
The Headwinds Are Real — and Stacking
Before getting into the five forces, Rex acknowledged the unique moment facing the bar and restaurant industry, characterized by higher fixed costs and fewer guest occasions:
- Food and labor costs are up an average of 35% over the past five years (NRA, 2025)
- Only 54% of U.S. adults now report drinking alcohol — the lowest figure in 90 years, according to Gallup.
- Full-service menu prices are up 4.2% year-over-year (Federal CPI, Sept. 2025)
- Guest traffic is down 1.5%, even as same-store sales rose 1.1% (Black Box, 2025).
In addition to these headwinds, Rex also flagged six structural influences making this moment different from previous downturns:
- The rise of GLP-1 medications suppressing appetite and drinking volume.
- Cannabis normalization competing for the same discretionary dollar.
- Socialization increasingly happening digitally rather than in person.
- The availability of premium at-home experiences closing the quality gap.
- Inflation eroding the value proposition of going out.
- A generational shift in which Gen Z drinks less, but expects more when they do.
"A lot of people used to say, 'oh, you're in booze, that's a recession-proof business,'" said Rex. "What we're seeing is that's very much not the case."
Force 1: New Math
Cocktail prices have soared in recent years. The most common cocktail price range across the surveyed bars is $15–$18, found at 66% of operators. But the average top-menu cocktail price sits at a mean of $23.28, with a median of $18. The tension in those numbers — menu prices up 4.2% year-over-year while costs have risen roughly 35% over five years — is what Rex called the structural gap operators now have to confront head-on with a new approach to pricing.
Variable pricing — charging more on weekends or during peak periods — is also beginning to appear in some markets. Rex cautioned against it. If you're in hospitality, surge pricing signals to guests that you're not on their side, and the goodwill cost likely outweighs the revenue gain.
The more sustainable lever is menu efficiency. Justify every drink that's on the menu. Experiment with placement — the basic psychology of leading with your best-margin item still holds, and moving drinks around the menu can affect sales in ways that might surprise you.
Force 2: Consistency
Operators may think what’s new and trendy is what will bring in guests, but The Spirits Authority found it’s actually the opposite: The operators who last aren't chasing trends, they're focusing on reliability and building an experience they can execute perfectly every single night.
It turns out the majority of bars are leaning into the idea of consistency, with roughly 60% of bar menus maintaining their core cocktail lineup through seasonal transition.
And consistency is also what consumers want. In fact, 70% of on-premise occasions are now researched before the guest even arrives — they've looked at the menu online, checked Instagram, and built an expectation before they walk through the door (Hospitality Insights, 2025). When the menu has changed, that expectation breaks.
“What we see in the in the research is bars are not changing their capital menu as frequently,” said Rex. “The ones that are changing their menu frequently are seeing revenue drops right after that flip. They're seeing increased cost in doing menu flips, and it's all adding up to a different experience for the guests every time.”
Rex recommended ensuring consistency across three main areas:
- Pricing: Discounting or implementing surge pricing on busy nights sends mixed signals. Guests want predictability.
- Execution: The goal is to deliver the same experience to every guest every night. This can be accomplished through pre-shift checklists, unified menu language, and shared service standards.
- Schedule: Lock your hours down and don’t change them. Guests need to trust you'll be open, staffed, and delivering the experience they came for.
Force 3: Intentional Consumption
People are drinking less, but with more intention, so it’s important that bars are giving them something worth choosing. The Spirits Authority’s study looked at what guests are actually drinking.
Spirits
- Agave (tequila and mezcal) has tied whiskey for the highest menu share (18%)
- Gin has emerged as the strongest growth story, now at 16%.
- Vodka, which used to be the workhorse of the bar, has declined to 10%.
- Non-alc, while only on 3% of menus, is growing as it appears on 1 in 5 programs
Cocktail Types
- Spirit-forward builds (old fashioned, martini, negroni) lead at 24% of menu share
- Sour family (sours, daiquiris, margaritas) is at 21%
- Tropical/Tiki and highball/effervescent drinks are tied for 14% of menu share
- Non-alc sections are now found on 47% of bar menus
On the non-alcoholic side, Rex's argument is straightforward: This is an inclusion issue. “If people are drinking less, we still want them to go out,” he said. “We still want folks to have the same experience, whether you're drinking or not.”
The key to sticking a non-alc program is to educate your staff and customer base about the value proposition behind the program. Customers will undoubtedly have questions about the products and the price, so make sure your staff is ready to explain both.
Trends
- Savory and culinary trends are increasing the use of tomato, cucumber, pepper, herbs, mushrooms, seaweed, and brines— especially in martinis and stirred drinks.
- Fermentation-driven ingredients like koji, miso, kombu, tepache, and vinegar are appearing as seasoning and depth rather than headline flavor, concentrated in high-skill programs.
- Dairy is having a moment, with milk punch, whey, yogurt, and cream used to soften bitterness and add texture.
- Coffee is moving past the espresso martini as bartenders are layering cold brew, coffee, fruit, cacao, and cascara with amaro, spices, and dairy in combinations that feel genuinely new.
Force 4: Craft Compression & Training
The height of the Covid pandemic and the resulting shutdowns may be six years in the past, but the effects are still being felt today, especially in the workforce behind the bar.
Between 2019 and 2020, the industry saw a 42% decline in full-time bartenders in a single year — from 293,000 to 169,000 (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics). The spring 2020 wave alone eliminated 8.2 million hospitality jobs, collapsing training pipelines.
Bartender headcount has since recovered to approximately 711,000 employed today, but there are now over 720,000 on-premise venues open as of Q1 2025 competing for the same compressed craft bench. The headcount recovered, but the experience didn't.
Batching now dominates bar programs due to the demand for speed of service around more complex cocktails. But this speed has come at the cost of spontaneity. “You can't modify things. A lot of our theater is gone,” said Rex. “Nobody can make classic drinks anymore. Nobody can make variations on the menu.”
Rex blames this on the compression of the infrastructure that supported craft bartending—less trained staff, less supplier support, etc. “We aren't taking the time to give people education. We're not training folks on the classics anymore. We're relying on the systems that we've built for batching, for on tap, and in doing so, we're losing some of the magic and some of the spark that really turned people onto craft cocktails in the first place.”
So how can the industry fix this? Rex has three suggestions:
- Demand operational training from your supplier partners: Ask for costed specs, batching SOPs, and low-ABV builds, not just brand storytelling.
- Protect education time: Commit to one paid hour per bartender per week for tasting and technique.
- Build a peer mentorship ladder: Pair each new bartender with a senior team member for their first 30 days.
A team educated on spirit categories and cocktails can make recommendations, execute off-menu requests, and move product from your back bar. Without that investment, the back bar is what Rex called "liquid decoration.”
Force 5: Operational Adaptability
The final force Rex covered has to do with the need to make more money and supplement the bar program with additional revenue streams.
“Think outside the box on how to use your space. Think about ways that you can transform slow periods into something else by utilizing the space that you're already paying rent on,” he said. “Make sure it’s a systematized thing, that you're being consistent with it, and that it's not running afoul of the core business because that's really going to be the way that we get in trouble.”
Some suggestions included:
- Events: 54% percent of top-performing bars have adopted regular event programming. Private events average 18% of total revenue for operators with dedicated space. Rex cautioned operators to overcommunicate when a space is closed for a private event so as not to surprise your regular customer base.
- Expansion: 34% of operators are considering wholesale or B2B expansion.
- Consumer education classes: These can be a meaningful loyalty driver, converting guests into advocates and repeat visitors.
The model that works, according to Rex, has three layers:
- Anchor revenue from a tight, consistent menu that executes at volume every night.
- An event layer with private events and programming contributing 15–25% of total revenue.
- An education layer of consumer classes that build loyalty and differentiate the brand.
The Bigger Picture
The operators who tackle the five forces currently shaping the industry by figuring out the new math, showing up consistently, building inclusive menus, investing in their teams, and diversifying their revenue are the ones that will survive this unique moment.
They also are the bars that will continue to provide a place for connection. “In light of everything that's happening in the world, with the loneliness epidemic, with people spending more time glued to their phone, and with the polarization that we're facing, bars and restaurants are the answer to a lot of the problems that we have in the world,” said Rex. “We just need to make sure that those spaces can still exist and be profitable.”
Main Takeaways
1. The math has permanently changed. Food and labor costs are up 35% over five years while menu prices have only risen 4.2% year-over-year. Operators who are still pricing to what they wish their margins were — rather than what the numbers actually demand — are falling behind.
2. Consistency beats creativity. Sixty percent of leading bars held their core menu steady through seasonal transition, and the ones flipping frequently are seeing revenue drops after each change. Guests research before they arrive and expect what they came for. Reliable hours, stable pricing, and repeatable execution are the fundamentals that build regulars.
3. Non-alcoholic is now a core program, not a nice-to-have. Nearly half of independent bars now offer a dedicated NA section. With fewer people drinking — and those who do, drinking less often — operators who treat non-alcoholic options as an afterthought are losing both covers and beverage revenue.
4. The pandemic left a skills gap that brands aren't filling. Bartender headcount has recovered, but craft knowledge hasn't. With supplier education programs dramatically scaled back, operators are on their own to train their teams — and an untrained team means a back bar full of bottles that don't move.
5. Single-revenue-stream bars are the most vulnerable. The operators pulling ahead are layering events (averaging 15–25% of total revenue), consumer education classes, and B2B or wholesale opportunities on top of their core business. Revenue diversification is no longer a growth strategy — it's a survival strategy.
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